Natural gas futures were little changed during early U.S. morning hours on Monday, with prices hovering below last week’s 18-month high, as market players were hesitant to extend a recent rally amid bearish chart signals.

On the New York Mercantile Exchange, natural gas futures for delivery in May traded at USD3.959 per million British thermal units during U.S. morning trade, up 0.2% on the day.       

Prices held in tight trading range between USD3.955 per million British thermal units, the session low and a daily high of USD3.978 per million British thermal units.

Nymex gas prices rose to USD4.021 per million British thermal units on March 21, the strongest level since September 15, 2011, before turning lower as a bout of technical selling set in after prices were met with strong resistance above the USD4.00-level.

Natural gas prices have risen sharply in recent weeks. The heating fuel is up almost 21% since falling close to a four-month low of USD3.125 per million British thermal units on February 15, boosted by calls for colder temperatures in major consuming regions across the U.S.

Natural gas prices have closely tracked shifting weather forecasts in recent weeks, as traders try to gauge the impact of shifting forecasts on late-winter heating demand.

Updated weather forecasts continued to call for below-normal readings for most of the Eastern half of the U.S. in the next six-to-ten days.

Bullish speculators are betting on the cool weather increasing late-winter demand for the heating fuel.

The heating season from November through March is the peak demand period for U.S. gas consumption. Nearly 50% of all U.S. households use gas for heating.

Easing concerns over bloated U.S. inventory levels also supported prices. The U.S. Energy Information Administration said last week that natural gas storage in the U.S. fell by 62 billion cubic feet.

Inventory withdrawals were flat in the same week a year earlier, while the five-year average change for the week is a decline of 26 billion cubic feet.

Total U.S. natural gas storage stood at 1.876 trillion cubic feet as of last week, 21.5% below their level this time last year, but still 9.5% above the five-year average.

Early withdrawal estimates for this week’s storage data range from 59 billion cubic feet to 94 billion cubic feet.

Inventories rose by 45 billion cubic feet in the same week a year earlier, while the five-year average change for the week is a buildup of 6 billion cubic feet.

Natural gas futures fell in afternoon trading on Thursday after official U.S. data revealed that supplies dropped less than expected last week.

On the New York Mercantile Exchange, natural gas futures for delivery in April traded at USD3.925 per million British thermal units, down 0.90%.

The commodity hit a session low of USD3.894 and a high of USD4.023.

The U.S. Energy Information Administration said in its weekly report that natural gas storage in the U.S. in the week ended March 15 fell by 62 billion cubic feet, compared to expectations for a drop of 70 billion cubic feet.

Inventories withdrawals were flat in the same week a year earlier, while the five-year average change for the week is a decline of 26 billion cubic feet.

Total U.S. natural gas storage stood at 1.876 trillion cubic feet as of last week. Stocks were 502 billion cubic feet less than last year at this time and 162 billion cubic feet above the five-year average of 1.714 trillion cubic feet for this time of year.

The report showed that in the East Region, stocks were 21 billion cubic feet above the five-year average, following net withdrawals of 47 billion cubic feet.

Stocks in the Producing Region were 63 billion cubic feet above the five-year average of 691 billion cubic feet after a net withdrawal of 15 billion cubic feet.

The data wiped out earlier gains.

The commodity hit near 18-month highs earlier on forecasts for temperatures to remain below normal for the coming days

In its five-day forecast, industry group MDA Weather Services predicted below-normal temperatures to stick around in the heavily populated eastern half of the U.S.

The heating season from November through March is the peak demand period for U.S. gas consumption. Nearly 50% of all U.S. households use gas for heating.

Natural gas futures extended Thursday’s gains into Friday as investors snapped up positions in the commodity after official data revealed supplies fell more than expected last week.

On the New York Mercantile Exchange, natural gas futures for delivery in April traded at USD3.628 per million British thermal units, up 1.30%.

The commodity hit a session low of USD3.566 and a high of USD3.634.

On Thursday, the U.S. Energy Information Administration said in its weekly report that natural gas storage in the week ending March 1 fell by 146 billion cubic feet, well beyond market expectations for a drop of 134 billion cubic feet.

The number fueled a two-day rally.

Inventories fell by 92 billion cubic feet in the same week a year earlier, while the five-year average change for the week represented a decline of 107 billion cubic feet.

Total U.S. natural gas storage stood at 2.083 trillion cubic feet as of last week. Stocks were 361 billion cubic feet less than last year at this time and 269 billion cubic feet above the five-year average of 1.814 trillion cubic feet for this time of year.

The report showed that in the East Region, stocks were 73 billion cubic feet above the five-year average, following net withdrawals of 77 billion cubic feet.

Stocks in the Producing Region were 123 billion cubic feet above the five-year average of 694 billion cubic feet after a net withdrawal of 58 billion cubic feet.

Forecasts models continued to point to colder temperatures sticking around through the end of the winter, fueling talk a hike in demand for heating will burn off excess supply, which added to the rally.